Well, it’s all over, folks. Nothing to see here. Go home.
A new poll by Quinnipiac shows President Trump being beaten next November by … nearly everyone.
In a first look at head-to-head 2020 presidential matchups nationwide, several Democratic challengers lead President Donald Trump, with former Vice President Joseph Biden ahead 53 – 40 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.
In other matchups, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll finds:
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders over President Trump 51 – 42 percent;
California Sen. Kamala Harris ahead of Trump 49 – 41 percent;
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren tops Trump 49 – 42 percent;
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg edges Trump 47 – 42 percent;
New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker by a nose over Trump 47 – 42 percent.
Yup, Trump gets beaten by everyone. “It’s a long 17 months to Election Day, but Joe Biden is ahead by landslide proportions,” Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said in a statement.
But hang on. Didn’t this happen last time? All the big pollsters predicted Hillary Clinton would win. Even Fox News in its last survey before the 2016 election put Clinton up +4.
“The HuffPost presidential forecast model gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a 98.2 percent chance of winning the presidency. Republican Donald Trump has essentially no path to an Electoral College victory,” the HuffPost wrote Nov. 7, 2016. “Clinton’s win will be substantial, but not overwhelming. The model projects that she’ll garner 323 electoral votes to Trump’s 215.”
Opposite. Trump won by a count of 304-227. (Write-ins picked up 7 electoral votes).
“Clinton should fairly easily hold onto Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania,” HuffPost said. Uh, again, opposite.
In a Nov. 14, 2016, piece, National Public Radio explained the massive error by saying “some people just don’t answer the phone.”
Many pollsters that do phone polling conduct it via random digit dialing. That means they should theoretically get a pretty representative sample — after all, they’re reaching out to people randomly. It’s possible that some pollsters managed to miss Trump supporters in a big way, explains Claudia Deane, vice president of research at the Pew Research Center. “The problem is if you get what pollsters call nonresponse bias, people are less likely to take your call or stay on the phone with you,” she explained.
The New York Times, too, in a May 2017 article sought to explain the breakdown in polling.
At least three key types of error have emerged as likely contributors to the pro-Clinton bias in pre-election surveys. Undecided voters broke for Mr. Trump in the final days of the race, or in the voting booth. Turnout among Mr. Trump’s supporters was somewhat higher than expected. And state polls, in particular, understated Mr. Trump’s support in the decisive Rust Belt region, in part because those surveys did not adjust for the educational composition of the electorate — a key to the 2016 race.
The Times, though, had this ominous conclusion: “Many of the challenges that pollsters faced in 2016 aren’t going away. Next time, the challenges could easily be greater.”
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