Rising shale production is putting the United States on track to hit the 12 million bpd oil production mark sooner than previously forecast, the Energy Information Administration said in its November Short-Term Energy Outlook. Next year's US crude oil output is now expected to average 12.1 million bpd, up from a forecast of 11.8 million bpd just a month ago in the October STEO (Short-Term Energy Outlook). US crude oil production reached a new monthly record of 11.3 million bpd in August 2018, exceeding 11 million bpd for the first time. Production in August was 290,000 bpd higher than expected in the October STEO, and it was this higher level that raised the baseline for the EIA's forecast for production in 2019. Comparing the forecasts in the latest STEO with the October estimates, the EIA now sees US crude oil production hitting the 12-million-bpd mark in the second quarter of 2019 rather than the fourth quarter.
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